Power Pros Forum

What I use is Eric Davis's K/BB in determining CTRL for other stats like Power or Contact, I look at last years numbers, If they had lets say 21 Home runs last year at AAA I would look at the stats of MLB players who had 21 Home runs last year and give them that power. After I give them that, I have to account for park dimensions and opposing pitchers. Unfortunately, to account for that I just guess on how much to take away.




@Eric Davis, look at the "a question" thread again, I think we still need to figure Bennett out.

I uh, don't have Excel on my computer...

Welp . . . . . . . . . so much for that.

Is this something I can use? http://www.easycalculation.com/statisti ... iation.php

No. There is too much data to manually enter by hand. We're talking thousands upon thousands upon thousands of numbers. Excel can calculate them with just a few clicks of the mouse.

Ah. I see. I'm gonna try to guess here exactly what this is.

Is it taking numerous stats from a bunch of players, figuring out like a high and low on a scale, and converting it to one simple different scale?

More or less. Standard deviations are the only way to ensure accuracy, but you can always concoct something you like and just go with it. It is just a game after all.

Well yeah, I know. I just happen to be good at and enjoy math, and now you've got me curious about standard deviation.

Just standard calculus. There really is no excuse for not having Excel, though . . . or something similar. Do you use Microsoft Word? If so, you probably have Excel.

I just haven't installed Microsoft Office since the last time I formated my computer.

OH! I think I totally get it now! For example: Since you can't judge a player's contact in PP based on just his batting average out of 1.000 because he'd have a low contact, you have to judge based on where that batter ranks compared to the batter with the highest average and batter with the lowest average. Am I right, or am I still off?

And again, it's not that this is a big deal about the game, I'm just trying to see if I can figure out how you're doing it because I'm curious about the math behind this.

Correct. Although batting average can be as straight forward as you want it to be. We already know the CON=AVG conversion rate for MLBPP:

15 = .366
14 = .354
13 = .342
12 = .330
11 = .315
10 = .300
09 = .285
etc . . .

So all you have to do is rank players by AVG and give everyone who hits between .278 and .293 a CON rating of 9. Players between .294 and .308 get a CON rating of 10, etc. If you are happy with that, cool. I wasn’t. I included contact rates to correct for things like luck and speed.

ERES is easy as well. Just 1) divide total errors by total chances to get an error rate, 2) sort the players by position and in descending order of error rate, and 3) apply ERES rankings based on E-Rate and position. Easy-peazy. Again, I wasn’t satisfied with just plain E-rate. I also separated throwing errors and fielding errors so I could distinguish which players had good gloves and wild arms from the players who had poor gloves and accurate arms.

The real work comes when you try to generate ratings for PWR, SPD, FLD and ARM. That’s when standard deviations are required. It’s not good enough to just use SB’s for SPD, because you have fast guys who don’t steal much, aren’t good at it, or play for a station-to-station team like the A’s. There is also a large contingent of medium speed guys who steal a lot and are good at it. Special Abilities like Stealing 2/3/4 and Aggressive/Neutral/Cautious SB cover those aspects.

To find out just how fast each player really is, we need two or three different statistics, and two or more statistics work on different scales we need to apply standard deviations to balance those scales in unison. For example, Bill James Speed Score statistic is pretty useful, and those players generally range from 0.5 to 8.5. Scout grades are also useful, and maybe you have a set that ranges from 0-100.

For PWR, maybe you want to use ISO, HR/AB, and average HR distance. Same thing. We need to boil it down with stdev. I realize I am only explaining the WHY. If you install Excel, I can show you HOW.

Wait a minute. If you know how the makers of the game determine abilities, I'd just use that way.

I have no idea how the makers of the game determined abilities . . . but they gave James Loney Vince Coleman speed, so their methods are debatable.