Power Pros Forum

Offseason 2016: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs made a splash just two days after losing the World Series, shedding tons of salary and adding a couple of interesting young players. Their trade, with the Seattle Mariners, shipped pitchers Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Adam Ottavino; catcher Wilin Rosario; and infielder Jonathan Villar, plus $10 million in cash, in exchange for pitchers Brandon Maurer and Hisashi Iwakuma and minor-league infielder Conner Hale. Says GM Parker Bernhart, “The guys we traded were all going to be out of a job anyway, we had too many guys behind them pushing for their jobs and this allowed us to free up a lot of cap room to build a better team for next year. In addition, we think Maurer can compete for a late-innings role next season, and Hale should help our infield depth. Iwakuma will probably be released as he has stated his desire to test free agency.”

On the same day, Matt Harrison’s option year was voided as the club did not want to pay the $14.5 million that would have been owed to him.

On the 14th, the team made a few moves, re-signing four players. Minor leaguers Luis Flores and Jae-Hoon Ha were both re-signed to minor league deals, infielder Reid Brignac was signed to a $1M extension, and outfielder Brett Jackson was re-signed to a deal that will pay him $900K in 2017, $1M in 2018, $1.1M in 2019, and a $2.4M option in 2020 that vests if he acquires 600 plate appearances.

On the 17th, backup first baseman/pinch-hitter/DH Paul Konerko was re-signed to a one-year contract worth $1,600,000. Minor-league right-hander Ryan Searle had his minor league contract renewed, and Hisashi Iwakuma was released.

On the 25th, another big trade was completed. Chicago sent southpaw Robbie Ross and second baseman Wendell Rijo to Kansas City for pitching prospect Carlos Rodon and $8,000,000 in cash. Rodon, 23, was selected 15th overall by Arizona in 2014, then 13th overall by Oakland in 2015, and was traded to the Royals along with infielder Gavin LaValley for outfielder Junior Lake after the season.

On December 1st, the Cubs selected lefty Kevin Chapman and righty Brad Boxberger in the Rule 5 Draft; they will both have to stay on the active roster for the entire 2017 season or be returned to their original clubs.

On the 4th, outfielders Quintin Berry and Jarrod Dyson along with right-hander Blake Parker signed minor league contracts with invites to spring training.

And then, on December 17th, something big happened. Something really big.

We signed Stephen Strasburg.

The contract will pay him $24,000,000 a year through 2022, with two team options each worth $25,000,000 with $2,500,000 buyouts. A no-trade clause and a guaranteed rotation spot are included in the language of the contract. Because Strasburg was a whatever type free agent, we had to surrender our first-round pick (if it is in the top ten, we surrender our second-rounder) to get him.

A few days later, on the 20th, Japanese catcher Sekien Kouda signed a minor league contract.

The Cubs waited just over a month before making their second big signing of the off-season, on January 22, adding left-hander Tim Collins at $8.4 million per year; the deal is guaranteed for 2017 and 2018, with a team option and $1 million buyout for 2019. But perhaps the even bigger storyline was second baseman Rickie Weeks, who had leaned toward signing with Chicago, abruptly retiring on the first of the month, upsetting management.

On the 23rd, the Cubs inked infielder Logan Forsythe and starting pitcher Travis Wood to one-year contracts. Forsythe will get $1.1 million, while Wood, who started 62 games for the Cubs from 2012-14 before being traded to San Francisco (the trade included Jeff Samardzija and Darwin Barney, and netted Chicago reliever Heath Hembree and catcher Andrew Susac) mid-season.

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During spring training, outfielder Austin Wates sprained his thumb and was placed on the 11-day DL.

After spring training was over, the Cubs finalized their roster. But one problem loomed—they had too many pitchers. After making some tough cuts, they still had too many men on the roster. So they did the only logical thing and made a trade.

The trade, with Baltimore, sent pitchers Jarred Cosart, Travis Wood, and Alfredo Silva, infielder Jordan Hankins, and outfielder Jae-Hoon Ha to the Orioles for pitcher Nick Burdi, catcher Jack Murphy, and outfielder Conor Bierfeldt (all minor-leaguers, all decent or better prospects)

After the trade and all the cuts, the Cubs’ roster looks like this heading into the season:

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Starting Rotation

RHP Stephen Strasburg
RHP Won-sub Lee
RHP Matt Wisler
RHP C.J. Edwards
RHP Kyle Zimmer

Bullpen

Closer: RHP Heath Hembree
Setup: RHP Dellin Betances
Setup: LHP Tim Collins
Setup: RHP Brandon Maurer
RHP Brad Boxberger
LHP Kevin Chapman
RHP Ryan Searle

Starting Lineup

RHB Albert Almora, CF (RHB Matt Szczur, LF)
RHB Starlin Castro, SS
LHB Anthony Rizzo, 1B
RHB Kris Bryant, 3B
RHB Jorge Soler, RF
LHB Brett Jackson, LF (RHB Albert Almora, CF)
LHB Reese McGuire, C (RHB Andrew Susac, C)
LHB Reid Brignac, 2B (RHB Logan Forsythe, 2B)

RHB Paul Konerko will DH and bat 7th
LHB Ryan Sweeney is the fourth outfielder

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The top prospects list was posted. Chicago has representatives in #16 Ryan Burr, #46 Dylan Cease, $59 Julio Urias, #63 Dan Vogelbach, #69 Carlos Rodon, #82 Stephen Kolek, and #86 Tyler Thompson. The seven prospects are down from eight in 2015 and eleven in 2016, but still very good. Of note: Brady Aiken dropped from #1 last year to being completely off the list; Bryant and McGuire lost prospect eligibility; and we traded Fisher and Seager. Juremi Profar and Jameis Winston (#59 and #75, respectively, in 2016) both also dropped off the list.

April 2017 Recap

It was Opening Day. April 10th. Stephen Strasburg, the newest and greatest addition to the Cubs roster, stepped on the mound in the bottom of the first. He struck out the first batter, then hit the next. He reached a 2-2 count, then reached back for his good fastball. Sure, he got the strikeout, but the “pop” he felt in his shoulder told him it wasn’t worth it. A day later, Strasburg was diagnosed with a partially torn labrum, which will put him out about three months. He was placed on the 60-day DL, and Nick Tropeano, who barely missed the cut after spring training, had his contract purchased from Iowa (AAA) to take his place. After that, it was mostly good news—LHP Wesley Wright started a rehab assignment a few days later, on the 14th, and outfielder Austin Wates came back on that same day, but was assigned to Iowa. Sure, it wasn’t all good—Kane County (A) outfielder Mitchell Hansen, who was having a fairly strong start to the season, tore his posterior cruciate ligament (PCL), and is out for roughly 9-10 months [he will resume baseball activities in late January, at the earliest].

The post-Strasburg pitching staff has been mostly mediocre: at 3.88, the team ERA is 9th in the Senior Circuit. The pitching of Tropeano (2.86 ERA, 2 QS), Won-sub Lee (2.89 ERA, 4 QS) and Matt Wisler (2.05 ERA, 2 QS) has been instrumental in holding this team together, as has the surprising effectiveness of lefty Kevin Chapman (0.00 ERA, 2 HLD). Heath Hembree (4/4 SV, 3.00 ERA) and setup man Dellin Betances (2.57 ERA) have also been key.

Offensively, the Cubs are enjoying strong starts from Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Jorge Soler—they have all accumulated at least 1.0 WAR over the first 17 games. Soler, in fact, is on pace for 48 home runs and 76 stolen bases, along with 13.9 WAR! The catching duo of Reese McGuire and Andrew Susac has been suspect at best, and they have not thrown out any would-be base-stealers. The team is third in the NL in batting average, fourth in home runs, and tied for fifth in steals, but a low walk rate has bogged them down a bit.

Overall, a 10-7 record is nothing to sneeze at, and especially if the Cubs can limit the amount of batters they walk (dead last in NL) and increase the amount of walks they draw, as well as getting a little luckier (1-4 in one-run games), they should be set for a very productive year.

Also, on the 12th, David Price threw a no-hitter for the Rays against the Rangers!

May 2017 Recap

Another month, another plethora of injuries, another winning record. This month, the injuries were less severe, but nonetheless Jorge Soler, Brett Jackson, and Matt Szczur (along with six minor-leaguers) all missed time on the disabled list with various injuries. In addition, at the end of the month, Paul Konerko shocked the world by retiring midseason. “I could tell that I was negatively affecting the team. Sure, I’m a great guy to have around in the clubhouse, but whatever an OPS plus is, I had an 8 in that, and I wasn’t even slugging my weight—it’s not like I hadn’t done that nineteen years in a row, every single year since my first year when I only got eight at-bats—plus I feel comfortable knowing that my successor as backup to a guy who doesn’t need a backup slash DH for an NL team is absolutely tearing it up down on the farm,” said Konerko. He is not wrong; Dan Vogelbach hit .335/.445/.595 with 12 home runs in 52 games, and the 24-year-old will now get a chance to show what he can do against major-league pitching.

The pitching has improved a ton, we’re now fourth in the NL with a 3.54 team ERA. Our lefties (Chapman and Collins) continue to strike batters out at unreal rates, and the back end of our bullpen is doing their jobs consistently; Hembree is 13 of 14 in save opps.

On offense, despite Anthony Rizzo having maybe his worst season ever, Bryant, Castro and Almora have helped to pick up the slack and help shoulder the load a bit. The catching situation continues to be a question mark, and the outfield depth is being tested with the injuries to Soler, Jackson and Szczur. If there is another injury, Jacob Hannemann is due for his chance; the 26-year-old has been a DH exclusively this season but can play center adequately, and is slashing .363/.408/.665 with 14 home runs and 21 doubles, good for a 3.5 WAR over just 54 games.

Round 1: Forfeited as compensation for signing RHP Stephen Strasburg
Round 2: TJ Collett, 19, C: The left-batting, right-throwing Collett hit .293 in 58 games for Miami (FL) last year, adding 9 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He profiles as a good defensive catcher with potential to be a solid all-around hitter. He is known for being a high-effort player who will work hard to become better. SIGNED 6/17 700K
Round 3: Ben Hughes, 21, OF/1B: The right-handed Hughes is a good all-around player. After hitting .321 with 34 steals for George Mason University, he was rated as having a good glove and good speed, but seems to make too many errors. While Hughes will never be a home run hitter, he can hit for power to the gaps, and had a very nice 8.0% K rate last year. SIGNED 6/11 700K
Round 4: Anthony Holubecki, 18, RHP: Holubecki is a sinkerballer who sits in the low-90s range and mixes in a developing curveball. He pitched for the Arizona Wildcats in 2017, posting a 7-3 record and 3.35 ERA. He will work hard to polish his game once he gets to the pros, but projects to have slightly above-average stuff and good command and control as well. SIGNED 6/14 190K
Round 5: Liam Sabino, 21, 2B/SS: The right-handed Sabino profiles as a solid-but-not-spectacular defensive middle infielder with decent speed and good extra-base power. He certainly needs work, especially hitting-wise, but has the smarts to do make adjustments quickly. SIGNED 6/11 $2.4M
Round 6: Fenway Parks, 22, INF: Parks, a right-hander, wasn’t just selected because of his name. He is a respectable player in his own right, but one who may have to outperform his potential and catch a few breaks along the way to make it to the next level. Parks projects as a utility infielder with average speed and gap power. SIGNED 6/6 NO BONUS
Round 7: Jake Westphal, 20, RHP: Westphal throws in the low-90s with a plus-plus curveball, a work-in-progress changeup, and a good fastball. He has good stuff, but his command and, more importantly, his control will have to improve for him to be successful. SIGNED 6/12 $2.4M
Round 8: Casey Kempner, 18, LHP: Kempner struggled a bit at Georgia Tech last year, going 3-6 with a 4.59 ERA. But he showed the plus stuff that got him there in the first place, putting up an 8.7 K/9. The lefty mixes a four-seam fastball that can touch triple digits with a slider that projects as plus-grade, but his command and control are well below-average, as evidenced by his 5.5 BB/9 and some of his other struggles. Nonetheless, he might have a future as a power arm in some team’s bullpen. Hopefully it’s ours. SIGNED 6/6 NO BONUS
Round 9: Nick Eicholtz, 22, RHP: Eicholtz was our 15th-round pick last year, but he didn’t sign and we picked him again, but six rounds earlier this time. The righty was teammates with Holubecki for Arizona, and went 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA. Everything about him screams “mediocre” but we were willing to take a chance given the low talent pool in the later half of the draft. He throws low-90s fastballs, mixing four-seam and a two-seam varieties with a slider. His control is his weakest attribute, as Eicholtz walked 5.6 batters per nine in 2017. SIGNED 6/6 NO BONUS
Round 10: Brady Shockey, 19, OF: Shockey, a left-batting, right-throwing outfielder, showed off his blazing speed last season at UConn, going 34-for-35 in steal attempts whole hitting .265. Shockey has great range in the outfield, and is certainly a threat to run—if he can get on base; his hitting abilities need to be proven before he can be trusted with any sort of real playing time. SIGNED 6/6 NO BONUS
Round 11: Cole Halfacre, 19, C: Halfacre was our 16th-round selection last year, but also didn’t sign, and we took him five rounds earlier this time. A left-handed hitter, Halfacre hit .284 with seven homers and twelve steals last year, but isn’t much of a threat to repeat those numbers in the pros; he grades out as an average defensive catcher with some arm strength and a poor offensive player all-around. SIGNED 6/6 NO BONUS

Seeing no other players I liked, and being content with our depth, I essentially forfeited the final five picks by signing players with insane contract demands and offering them $1 bonuses.

June 2017 Recap

It's been three months now and the Cubs still haven't realized that they aren't supposed to be very good; the team is still holding on to a slim lead for first place in the NL Central division, and is in the top half in the National League in nearly every category. "Two areas we have struggled in are, actually, the same area, but on both sides of the game. We need to be more patient and draw more walks, and we need to focus on control and walk less of our opponents," said manager Rick Renteria.

The pitching has been good, especially the back end of the bullpen, where Heath Hembree (22/24 SV), Dellin Betances (12 HLD, 2.25 ERA), and Brandon Maurer (3-0, 6 HLD, 2.45 ERA) have done a superb job of protecting leads. Left-hander Kevin Chapman, a Rule 5 pick, has posted a sparkling 0.75 ERA and is holding lefties to a .088 average. The other Rule 5 pick, Brad Boxberger, tore his labrum and is expected to be out for at least eleven months.

Offensively, outfielders Brett Jackson and Jorge Soler have returned from injuries, and Kris Bryant, Starlin Castro, and Albert Almora continue to spark the offense in the absence of Anthony Rizzo (well, he's still in the lineup, but has not been his usual All-Star-caliber self this season).

What are Bryant's abilities at this point? I'm curious.

65 rating at 3B, 15 rating in LF

Great question!