FB/SL/CUT/CH according to fangraphs
89 MPH fastball avg, seems like 90 top spd?
Might have a SNK considering he's a groundballer (best GB% in bigs)
"Sick tilt" on slider
81% GB/BIP, ahead of Masterson for 1st
Comp to Wade Miley
Rarely elevates pitches
Righties bat .208 vs his changeup
In general: excellent sinker/slider combination with a solid changeup
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This year, Keuchel is throwing his changeup more often than in 2013, and it has been extremely effective. His changeup generates a whiff 22% of the time, up from 15% last season. The result could explain his increase in strikeout rate, which is up to 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. The changeup comes in 10 mph slower than his fastball/sinker combo, which are up to 91 mph this season. The time has come to cease and desist in calling Keuchel a "soft-tossing lefty". All of his pitches have seen a velocity increase of 3 mph since 2012, and he occasionally touches 93 with his fastball and sinker, which average the same speed. Since Keuchel is only 26 years old, the velocity increase is likely for real, and corresponds with an age at which many pitchers add velocity and many batters add home run power. Likewise, his 2014 velocity is not a spike, as the increase in pitch speed has seen a gentle climb since Keuchel entered the league.
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"He’s forcing it, the pitch upstairs, knowing that’s the report against Mike Trout — high fastballs. But he’s a sinkerball pitcher; it’s difficult to consistently stay upstairs with his fastball."
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Keuchel, who is less established, is becoming an excellent low-ball pitcher.
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Keuchel has always had a strong changeup, paired with a two-seamer with very nice dual-plane break. The problem was that his other pitches were basically junk.
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Okay, wow. First thing that jumps out to me here is that only about 6% of Keuchel’s pitches were in the upper third of the strike zone. Even more remarkably, he threw in excess of 37% of his pitches below the knees. As you may expect, the 26-year-old finally kissed that home-run rate goodbye, as he allowed just 11 bombs in his 200 innings in 2014.
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Over the last two years, he’s turned a largely useless 72-mph slurve into a useful third pitch, a slider that comes in at around 80 mph and has good horizontal break..Now, I’m not saying that Keuchel’s slider is any sort of special offering. It’s not. What it is, however, is plenty good enough to finally give him a useful third pitch to go with the change and the two-seamer. A guy who once looked like a questionable future reliever now looks like a quality mid-rotation starter. Funny what happens when pitchers develop a third pitch and throw everything at the knees, isn’t it?
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Keuchel’s success basically boils down to pounding the bottom of the zone and making his slider a not-terrible third pitch by throwing it harder with more horizontal break. Both of those adjustments allowed his two primary pitches, a two-seamer and change, to play way, way up. That means he was able to induce a veritable shitload of ground balls. Per the BP PITCHf/x leaderboards, Keuchel led the league with a 77% ground ball per ball in play rate on two-seamers among the the 139 starters who threw that pitch at least 200 times. He was also 11th in GB/BIP at 63% with his change. All in all he led qualified starters in ground ball rate with a 63.5% mark.
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So now, the slider is getting tons of whiffs, and the change-up is looking better. That’s probably because he hasn’t thrown a single change-up to a lefty this year. He doesn’t have to, he has weapons against them now with the sinker and the breaker. Given his arsenal, it’s tempting to name him a pickup in all leagues. He has a sinker that gets 66% ground-balls, an above-average change-up for righties, and a plus slider for lefties. That’s all he needs! Wander on down to his zone percentage, though, and you might get worried. Not even 35% of his pitches are in the zone! The good news is that it might not matter. Keuchel’s ball rates on his off-speed stuff aren’t good — perhaps he’s still trying to command them better — but his two-seamer (according to BrooksBaseball) gets a 25% ball rate, which is elite. That’s how he’s put up elite walk rates in the minors. He’s also getting strike one 65% of the time, which is sustainable and excellent. Keuchel only throws around 90 mph, so don’t drop an established pitcher for him. But as a guy that gets ahead on strike one and gets grounders with a sinker he can command, and then has two putaway pitches that break in different directions..
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He throws three fastballs, with the sinker getting the most work. Left-handed sinker ballers are pretty rare. Keuchel’s ground ball rate matches the elites; unless I missed a name, the only other extreme left-handed groundball pitcher since 2002 is Jaime Garcia. Hitters see a lot of sinkers when they’re ahead in the count, which is the perfect time to throw a well controlled, moving fastball. His slider comes out to play once he’s ahead in the count. As we’ll see in a moment, it’s a doozy. His change gets a lot of action against right-handed hitters, although lefties never see it. Notice his slider and change generate a very high rate of whiffs per swing. Moreover, when batters swing, his slider is whiffed or fouled away over 77 percent of the time! We’re working with small sample sizes, but that’s still mighty impressive. His sinker and change are both fantastic at drawing ground balls when they’re put in play.
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Oddly, as good as Keuchel has been thus far, there is a strong argument to be made that he has also been unlucky. Though his career BABIP of .317 is very close to the .320 that he wields at present, his BABIP has been one of the main reasons some have projected improvement for the young hurler. In his Fielding and Ballpark Independing scoring, TCB rogue contributor reillocity found that Keuchel was the 2nd-most effective starter on the Astros in 2013, and not-so-rogue contributor clack tells us that Keuchel's xBABIP in 2013 of .305 indicated a strong probability of regression because of it's difference with his sky-high .332 BABIP. Once again, Keuchel's .320 BABIP can be considered high (league-average for qualified starters is .290), and finer times might be ahead for the lefty.
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Fastball life 2
GBpitcher, for sure
GdLowPitch maybe?
Unlucky (lolAstros)