Power Pros Forum :: View topic - Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers

Tim Lincecum? He's 5-10 with a 4.63 ERA, which isn't horrible.
Edit: A guy like Jacob Turner, Alvarez, pretty much most of the reliable marlins pitchers'll be unlucky.

Chris Tillman (13-3, 3.62 era) should get Lucky.

I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares.

detroittigers15 wrote:

I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares.

I think the standard for Unlucky pitchers like this would be Doug Fister. Maybe we could start by looking at how much run support a certain SP gets per game?

I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares.

detroittigers15 wrote:

I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares.

Agreed. Run support makes a huge difference.

Felix is on my fantasy team, and the other night he pitched 9 innings, gave up 1 run, with 11 K's, and got a no decision.

Bottom 15 in Run support: Sale, Strasburg, AJ Burnett, Bud Norris, Cliff Lee, C. Hamels, Jarrod Parker, Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez #MLB

BrewersFuzz wrote:

Felix is on my fantasy team, and the other night he pitched 9 innings, gave up 1 run, with 11 K's, and got a no decision.

Sounds like MLB Life to me.

ZeroGibson13 wrote:

BrewersFuzz wrote:

Felix is on my fantasy team, and the other night he pitched 9 innings, gave up 1 run, with 11 K's, and got a no decision.

Sounds like MLB Life to me.

Except then it would be a loss. He allowed a run, after all.

Author:	philliesfan134 [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 2:51 am ]
Post subject:	Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
Is there any pitchers that stand out to you guys as deserving the Lucky/Unlucky ability? Off the top of my head, Cole Hamels (4-13, 4.09) fits. Felix Hernandez was like that in the past but he's fared better this year record-wise (Cy Young, anybody?). I'd like it if we could make more topics like this for individual abilities as it would help me out as I update rosters.

Author:	Prediction [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 2:52 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
Tim Lincecum? He's 5-10 with a 4.63 ERA, which isn't horrible. Edit: A guy like Jacob Turner, Alvarez, pretty much most of the reliable marlins pitchers'll be unlucky.

Author:	AgentP [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:02 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
Chris Tillman (13-3, 3.62 era) should get Lucky.

Author:	philliesfan134 [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:07 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
Prediction wrote: Tim Lincecum? He's 5-10 with a 4.63 ERA, which isn't horrible. Edit: A guy like Jacob Turner, Alvarez, pretty much most of the reliable marlins pitchers'll be unlucky. AgentP wrote: Chris Tillman (13-3, 3.62 era) should get Lucky. Would love to give these guys Lucky, however dish made me Turner awhile ago and Tillman/Alvarez have not been made yet.

Author:	detroittigers15 [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 1:41 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares.

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Author:	dishnet34 [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 1:53 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
detroittigers15 wrote: I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares. I think the standard for Unlucky pitchers like this would be Doug Fister. Maybe we could start by looking at how much run support a certain SP gets per game?

Author:	SkittleMonster [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 1:54 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
If you want it to be more reliable, look at stats such as BABIP and xFIP. A lot of pitchers are just unlucky (or lucky) because they pitch on terrible (or great) teams. Zack Grienke was a guy who's sabermetrics showed that he was a better pitcher than his ERA and WHIP would leave you to believe, so he's a guy where unlucky could work

Author:	detroittigers15 [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 2:13 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
dishnetkid wrote: detroittigers15 wrote: I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares. I think the standard for Unlucky pitchers like this would be Doug Fister. Maybe we could start by looking at how much run support a certain SP gets per game? You could start with that, but you'd also have to look at how much run support the team's other starters get. Skittles, your suggestion makes sense, but the PP kind of Lucky were talking about only affects the team's hitters, so run support is pretty much all you can look at.

Author:	SkittleMonster [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 2:16 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
I'm aware, but it's hard to find evidence of a pitcher getting compared to the rest of the staff. All of Marlins pitchers get terrible run support, but that's just because the Marlins are bad. I'd be reluctant to give a pitcher unlucky just because of that. Is that a stat that measures run support? If so, that would be super useful EDIT: Hey, would you look at that. There is! http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_ ... expanded-2

Author:	Prediction [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 2:17 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
A guy like Jason Hammel is lucky, seeing as how the orioles have one of the best offences in the al and his era is sky high, but Chris Tillman isn't lucky I'd say, considering he has a pretty good ERA and isn't just a bad pitcher on a good team Edit: wow, nice find skittle. So we could use that, and see if a guy gets like 1 run a game, but has an era of 3.02, we could give him unlucky?

Author:	BrewersFuzz [ Sat Jul 27, 2013 10:08 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
detroittigers15 wrote: I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares. Agreed. Run support makes a huge difference. Felix is on my fantasy team, and the other night he pitched 9 innings, gave up 1 run, with 11 K's, and got a no decision.

Author:	ZeroGibson13 [ Sun Jul 28, 2013 1:00 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
BrewersFuzz wrote: detroittigers15 wrote: I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares. Agreed. Run support makes a huge difference. Felix is on my fantasy team, and the other night he pitched 9 innings, gave up 1 run, with 11 K's, and got a no decision. Sounds like MLB Life to me.

Author:	philliesfan134 [ Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:11 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
Here's an indication: Quote: Bottom 15 in Run support: Sale, Strasburg, AJ Burnett, Bud Norris, Cliff Lee, C. Hamels, Jarrod Parker, Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez #MLB

Author:	cooldude1045 [ Sun Jul 28, 2013 1:25 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
ZeroGibson13 wrote: BrewersFuzz wrote: Felix is on my fantasy team, and the other night he pitched 9 innings, gave up 1 run, with 11 K's, and got a no decision. Sounds like MLB Life to me. Except then it would be a loss. He allowed a run, after all.

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Author:	BrewersFuzz [ Sun Jul 28, 2013 1:40 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Lucky/Unlucky Pitchers
cooldude1045 wrote: ZeroGibson13 wrote: BrewersFuzz wrote: Felix is on my fantasy team, and the other night he pitched 9 innings, gave up 1 run, with 11 K's, and got a no decision. Sounds like MLB Life to me. Except then it would be a loss. He allowed a run, after all. ...No it wasn't. It was tied 1-1 after 9 innings, and the Mariners ended up losing in the 13th. It's a no decision if he exits the game when it's tied.