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Updating Rosters
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Author:  ChiCubsFan4 [ Sun Aug 02, 2009 8:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Updating Rosters
I could really use some help updating rosters. When editing a player that's not in the game, what's the best way to determine what abilities you should give him?
Author:  goodways [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 1:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
You know what I've all ways wondered about that also
Author:  jacobye46 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 1:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
I don't feel like writing alot but I'll tell you stuff now and do the rest tmrw

ok for young rookie sluggers such as Garett jones, Colby rasmus, and jay Bruce then they should have D contact, B power and slugger
never give a young player A power until they prove that they can hit 30+ honeruns

for players like mccutchen and fowler, they deserve B run speed with good baserunning skills such as agr runner, baserunning 4 and etc

players that you're not sure about when it comes to fielding, just give them D's and C's. Same for speed but if they're a 1B or catcher then usually they deserve E
but outfielders should get D-B run speed

players that hit maybe 1-5 homeruns should have E power usually, never overrate a young player

for young players with power potential such as Sandoval should have 135-138 power so that they can get to B in 1-3 years. Also give them 3 trj and slugger

I'll continute this tommorow because I've had a ton of players that I've edited from a player and added to a team
Author:  Eric Davis 44 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 1:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
I'm nearing completion of a master list that features updates (40-man rosters + prospects) for every team.

The trick was creating a universal grading method for each stat/ability. Some were easy. Some were not. In most cases, I exported stats from Fangraphs.com and applied standard deviations to convert the raw data to scale. Fielders for example:

- TRJ = GB/FB and LD ratios.
- CON = composite using AVG, BABIP, Swing%, Contact% and maybe one or two others.
- PWR = composite using ISO and HR per PA.
- SPD = Bill James 4-component speed score + scout grades on the 20-80 scale.
- ARM = Tango's scouting reports by the fans, ARM ratings, assists/chances and some other random stuff.
- FLD = RF/9, RngR, UZR 150, subtracted by speed%.
- ERES = ErrR.

Special Abilities were similar (Aggressive & Patient HTR = pitches per plate appearance + BB/9, Table Setter = AVG + OBP - AVG, etc).

Pitchers were easier. I created a simple scale for CTRL using BB/9 (I'll post it below this post) and stamina is mostly role-dependant, although I used IP/9 and P/IP for a bunch of starters. Pitch types come from PitchFX data and the quality of each pitch comes from the Pitch Value rankings, all of which are available at Fangraphs. Special Abilties for pitchers were also straight-forward (Dr. K = K/9, Groundball P = GB/ratio, Fastball Life = FB movement per Pitch FX + BABIP vs FB's, Spin = Pitch Value of breaking balls + BABIP vs, etc.)

I've been chipping away at this for a while now. I'll make it available to anyone who wants it when it's complete.
Author:  Eric Davis 44 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 1:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
Conversion Chart: BB/9 to CTRL

BB/9 Ctrl
0.00 255
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9.94 1
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9.98 0
9.99 0
Author:  ChiCubsFan4 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
Would you happen to be going by this website: http://www.fangraphs.com/
Author:  Eric Davis 44 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 5:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
ChiCubsFan4 wrote:
Would you happen to be going by this website: http://www.fangraphs.com/


That's the one. I used baseball-reference.com to get specific splits and minor league positional info, mlb.com to get uniform #'s and videos and a handful of other sites for scouting info, but 95-99% of the grade-A meat came from fangraphs.
Author:  ChiCubsFan4 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 7:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
For these stats, do you go by season stats or career stats?
Author:  Eric Davis 44 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
ChiCubsFan4 wrote:
For these stats, do you go by season stats or career stats?


I used a weighted 3-year average (more emphasis on recent numbers) but used a stright 3-year average for fielding since UZR and Range Runs fluctuate so much from season to season. I also applied the ROS (rest of season) projections at Fangraphs when it was obvious a player would regress to the mean.
Author:  ChiCubsFan4 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 10:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
How exactly are you doing the math with these stats to figure what a certain ability should be?
Author:  Eric Davis 44 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 11:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
ChiCubsFan4 wrote:
How exactly are you doing the math with these stats to figure what a certain ability should be?


Are you familiar with standard deviations and z-scores?
Author:  ChiCubsFan4 [ Mon Aug 03, 2009 11:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
No...
Author:  Eric Davis 44 [ Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
Standard deviations measure the dispersion of data and convert them into units of measurement. Z-scores indicate how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean: the standard deviation is the unit of measurement of the z-score.

For example, if you want to calculate player values for your fantasy baseball league, you have to normalize the data so all categories have equal value. Otherwise, you would just be guessing. Which has more value: 90 RBI or 94 R? 31 SB or 16 HR? A .285 AVG over 450 AB's or a .283 AVG over 500 AB's? And what's the difference in value between 147 K, 125 K and 57 K? In essence, you need to turn those apples and oranges and bananas and grapes into equal portions of fruit salad.

Excel makes calculating stdev easy provided you it’s properly executed. There are all sorts of on-line tutorials to teach you how - it's not hard.
Author:  ChiCubsFan4 [ Tue Aug 04, 2009 10:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
That's starting to make sense. I understand the converting data to a unit of measurement which would be required for determining a player's abilities in PP, and making all categories have equal value makes sense, but I'm still not quite understanding how to do it. Can you please explain a little more or give me a link to somewhere that explains how to do it?
Author:  Eric Davis 44 [ Wed Aug 05, 2009 1:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Updating Rosters
OK, let’s do one together.

1) Open a clean Excel spread sheet.

2) Click the following link (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 09&month=0), click ‘Export to Excel,’ click ‘Open,’ and copy/paste it to your clean Excel sheet.

3) Close the fangrpahs.com window, go back to your excel sheet and delete every column except: Name, RF/9, RngR and UZR/150. You might want to keep the other columns in the future, but let’s keep it clean and simple.

4) Insert two new columns after RF/9, RngR and UZR/150 and name them RF/9z and RF/9x, RngRz and RngRx, 150z and 150x.

So, your excel spread sheet should currently have columns A (Name) through J (150x) and rows 1 (Name) through 20 (Vernon Wells).

5) Highlight cell B21 (under the last RF/9 score), click the arrow next to the AutoSum button (the Sigma symbol), click ‘Average’ and hit Enter.

When you highlight the cell you should see: =AVERAGE(B2:B20). You can also enter the functions manually.

6) Now highlight cell B22 (under RF/9 average), click the arrow next to the AutoSum button, click ‘More Functions,’ find and click STDV, make sure the range is B2:B20, and then click Enter. I enter STDEV manually to avoid the mouse clicking

You should see this in the function window: =STDEV(B2:B20).

7) Copy/paste cells B21 and B22 under the other two columns of data, RngR and UZR/150. Now we have averages and stdevs for all three columns.

8] Highlight cell C2 and enter the following function in the fx window: =SUM(B2-$B$21)/$B$22. In other words, subtract Franklin Gutierrez’s RF/9 score from the RF/9 average, and then divide by the stdev. The $ symbol locks that specific part of the function so we can apply to the other players without having to re-enter the function. So highlight cell C2 again, hold/drag it down to cell C20 and click Enter. Now we have RF/9z scores for all of the players.

9) Highlight all of the data in rows 1 through 20 (not 21 and 22) and click: Data / Sort / Sort by RF/9z / Descending / OK. The players should now be ranked in descending order.

10) Highlight cell D2 and enter the following function in the fx window: =SUM(C2-$C$20). In other words, subtract Adam Jones’ RF/9z score from the lowest RF/9z score. Again, we used the $ symbol so we can subtract everyone’s RF/9z score from the lowest RF/9z score. So highlight cell D2, hold/drag it down to cell D20 and click Enter.

11) There is one last step before we move to RngR. Because we will be sorting again, our previous functions will get screwed up as things move out of order. The easiest way to avoid this is to copy our created data (C2 through D20), paste it to a message board window (seriously – a reply window right here at MLBPP or at fangraphs will do the trick), copy it from the message board window, and paste it back over the top on our excel sheet. Now our numbers are hard instead of the being reliant on the functions which created them.

12) Repeat steps 8 through 11 for RngR and UZR/150.

13) Add two more columns after 150x, and name them Score and FLD. Use 0 decimal places for the FLD column.

14) Highlight cell K2 (Score) and enter the following function: =AVERAGE(D2,G2,J2). Highlight cell K2 and hold/drag it down to K20. In other words, average the three x-scores for each player.

15) Highlight all of the data in rows 1 through 20 (not 21 and 22) and click: Data / Sort / Sort by Score / Descending / OK.

16) Now it’s time to turn these numbers into our FLD ratings. As you can see, Franklin Gutierrez is the highest rated defensive CF by a sizeable margin. He is currently one of the premier defenders in baseball, regardless of position, and probably deserves a 15 rating for his glove, range and reaction time. As the highest rated player, he is out benchmark.

NOTE: The highest rated player will usually be the benchmark when calculating this way. For roto baseball, the benchmark is actually the lowest ranked draftable player at each position, but we aren’t using dollars here, we are using a 15-point scale.

So . . . highlight cell L21 and enter: =SUM(15/K2). K2 is Franklin Gutierrez’s Score and the number 15 represents his FLD rating.

17) Highlight cell L2 and enter the following function: =SUM(K2*$L$21). Highlight cell L2 and hold/drag it down to L20. Bingo!

That’s how you do it. Now, in this example you’ll notice Vernon Wells has a FLD rating of 0. That’s because he was the worst in all three categories in our small sample of players. That won’t happen when you increase your sample to include more players.

The key is deciding who your benchmark is and what his rating should be. For example, maybe you believe Gutierrez has been so good, he is tipping the scales and everyone not named Gutierrez should have higher FLD ratings. No problem. Same process as step 17:

Highlight cell L21 and enter =SUM(14/K3). In other words, K3 is Carlos Gomez’s Score and the number 14 represents his FLD rating. Then in cell L3, enter: =SUM(K3*$L$21). Highlight cell L2 and hold/drag it down to L20. As you can see, most of the CF’s received a 1-point bump to their FLD ratings.

Again, because our sample size was small, guys like Shane Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury got the shaft. They move up the scale once you increase the sample size to include all OF’s, so don’t use these as your actual ratings. You can go down the list and manually increase/decrease the ratings as you see fit, but with enough innings, this is a pretty accurate indicator of a player’s true defensive ability. Guys like Victorino and Ellsbury are deceiving. They appear to be excellent defenders due to their blazing speed, but their speed is often nullified by below average reaction time, misreads, and poor route running.

If you feel there guys are ranked too low, go ahead and do away with RF/9 and just use the other two. Also, pay attention to the Innings. A crappy 3B may have had a great 150 innings at SS but that doesn't make him a great SS. I suggest you break your players up into 2 or 3 groups based on innings played, and use more conservative ratings for players with fewer innings.

That’s about it. The step-by-step guide makes it appear hard and time consuming, but once you get the hang of it, you can hammer these out in just a few minutes.
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