Power Pros Forum

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/07/22/verducci.krod/1.html

The article provides an interesting historical perspective on the save statistic, including where K-Rod's record setting pace this year ranks in that context. From Verducci...

"K-Rod's run for the record says as much about his team as it does about him. The Angels are a good team with little power on offense, so they tend to play close games. They also have a deep and efficient bullpen, which allows manager Mike Scioscia not to force his closer into a game early. The idea that Rodriguez is a MVP candidate is an epic stretch because his candidacy is based more on circumstances and a marginally valuable statistic than it is extraordinary performance. (Take Vladimir Guerrero out of that lineup and the Angels, ninth in runs, couldn't outscore Beckham and the L.A. Galaxy.) Consider this about Rodriguez's season through his first 40 saves: His strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk rate, WHIP and opponents' on-base percentage all were career worsts (though still exemplary).

• In 43 of his 47 appearances he entered with no runners on.
• He never faced more than six batters in any of his 47 games.
• He never obtained more than three outs in any appearance.
• He entered only 19 times when the Angels were tied or ahead by one. He blew the save or the game in four of those cases.

This isn't to say Rodriguez is not an elite closer. He's only 26, has 186 career saves and is an absolute nightmare for right-handed hitters. He lives for the big spots. When he hits the free-agent market this winter he will command a five-year contract worth about $65 million or more.

The save record alone, however, will not define K-Rod as a historically great closer any more than it did Thigpen. To achieve that sort of excellence requires dominance, the kind in which he overmatches hitters. For part of a closer's value is to intimidate the other team into thinking it begins the game with three fewer outs with which to play (or more, in some exceptional closer cases). The premier closer might pitch the ninth, but effect the first eight innings by reputation.

What kind of closer is that? To define it I decided to throw together a list of the top five seasons by a closer. No, Thigpen is not on the list. And neither is K-Rod. It's not just about the saves. I also did not include Eric Gagne, whose 2003 season holds all the right statistical values to be included on such a list, but his inclusion in the Mitchell Report, and his freefall in The Testing Era, casts too much doubt on the validity of those numbers. So here goes: In honor of Jerome, who sought to recognize how the game was changing and the men who were changing it, here are my top five seasons by a closer:

1. Dennis Eckersley, 1990 Athletics. Nothing else comes close. The numbers are staggering. Eck was so good he had more saves (48) than baserunners allowed (45). Of the 262 batters he faced, he walked only four, including one intentionally, while striking out 73. He gave up only one run and no walks on the road all year. Oakland was 60-3 when Eck pitched, losing only once after handing him a lead.

2. Bruce Sutter, 1977 Cubs. We're talking apples as opposed to oranges. This is a nod to old-school firemen. On June 1, 1977, Sutter entered a game in the seventh inning with his team down by a run. He wound up throwing five innings in what turned out to be a 13-inning victory for Chicago. Sutter threw 107 1/3 innings, entered 33 times with runners on, and pitched multiple innings 37 times -- and still logged a WHIP of 0.857.

3. J.J. Putz, 2007 Mariners. It's difficult to imagine the closer role being any more evolved than it is now. Five of the nine lowest WHIPs recorded by 30-save pitchers occurred in 2006 and 2007, including this one by Putz. Chalk it up to uber-specialization. The Mariners were 41-1 when they gave Putz a save situation. He held batters to two hits all year with two outs and runners in scoring position and a .085 average in two-strike counts.

4. Jose Mesa, 1995 Indians. Cleveland was 60-2 whenever Mesa pitched, including 48-0 in save situations. (He blew two saves, but the powerful Indians offense came back to win both games. His two appearances in losses occurred only in blowout defeats when he needed work.) It wasn't always heavy lifting (Mesa pitched 24 times with a lead of three runs or more), but it always was reliable.

5. Mariano Rivera, 2005 Yankees. Rivera accounted for seven wins and 43 saves for a team that won 95 games. He posted a 1.38 ERA and allowed only two home runs. But hold on. This season, at age 38, Rivera is putting together the best season of his career and one that just might wind up No. 2 on this list.

Honorable mentions: Willie Hernandez, 1984 Tigers; Eckersley, 1989 Athletics; Trevor Hoffman, 1998 Padres; Rivera, 1999 Yankees; John Smoltz, 2003 Braves; Jonathan Papelbon, 2006 Red Sox."

I agree with him on a lot of what he says, though I disagree with his decision to exclude Gagne. I'm don't care either way about Gagne as a fan, but I think it is bit arbitrary to exclude him based on steroid era stats vs. "post-testing era" while not excluding other pitchers. I don't know what PEDs Gagne did or didn't use, but I think you can easily point to Gagne's injury history/arm problems as a primary cause of his decline. Even though he was successful with the Rangers last year, it was obvious that his velocity was down and he was getting by more on smoke and mirrors than "stuff."

I'd have to go back and look at the stats, but I have to think there is a place for John Wetteland at least in the top 10. I know he was just the end of the line of the Nelson/Stanton, Riviera, Wetteland combo that made Yankee games 6 inning affairs in the '96-'97 timeframe, but he was incredibly dominant and had the intimidator factor.

I was surprised not to see any mention of Gossage or Fingers, even though they weren't compilers of huge save stats because of the way closers were used in their era.

Very interesting article. Still, he's going to get a big pay day this off season. But, those are some amazing numbers by the top 5 closers on that list.

If Mariano is perfect the whole year, it's possible he might have the best year in hitstory. Its not a stretch with the ammount of time left. If he had as many oppurtunities, I believe he'd be doing even better then K-Rod.

K-Rod is on an unreal save pace!

Rivera actually blew one earlier this week or last week, so he isn't perfect anymore. Still having an incredible season though!

Saves are an opportunistic stat

As an Angels fan, i'll admit K-Rod's record run is generally overrated, the blown saves are what really matter. It's still worthy of praise, and the team deserves some credit for winning so many close games.

Rivera will go down as the great closer of this era, since he's already made his mark on that ridiculous run in the post season, about a decade ago. Of course, they're only talking about single regular season records here.

Don't forget, the Angels blew THREE saves in one game, if the whole pen gets shaky all at once...

I would say the best closer ever. Yes, about a half hour after I said this, he blew it. Of course (damn it). He came on with bases loaded and no outs in the bottom of the eight. Stupid Damion Marte, he's blown three games or caused the games to be blown (one was recovered and the other two weren't blown saves but tied games).

K-Rod is leading the saves n mite brake the record cuz he had a bolt at the start of the season and had half more than any pitcher in around april or may lol the angels were really good defensively at the start which allowed K-Rod to come in during a save situation lol kinda funny