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Dr K
 Post subject: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2009 1:29 pm 
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I used Baseball Mogul 2010's Single Season Simulator (with updated rosters) to project how to the 2009 season would go. It is pretty interesting. In one simulation, I saw that David Wright beat Albert Pujols for an MVP award three times. On an other, the Red Sox really UPGRADED their catcher by getting Joe Mauer and Matthew Wieters from the Orioles. Anyway, it is pretty interesting to take a look at, wins and losses are averaged for the five seasons and in no way is this probably going to be correct, but it would be cool.

Code:
5 SEASONS SIMULATED


                EAST    Won   Lost   WC   LC   1R  1st Wild  2nd  3rd  4th   5+
           Baltimore  81.00  81.00    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    2    1
              Boston  90.20  72.00    1    0    0    3    0    0    1    1    0
            New York  85.80  76.20    0    1    0    1    1    1    2    1    0
           Tampa Bay  90.20  72.00    1    0    0    1    2    3    1    0    0
             Toronto  68.60  93.40    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    4

             CENTRAL    Won   Lost   WC   LC   1R  1st Wild  2nd  3rd  4th   5+
             Chicago  64.20  97.80    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5
           Cleveland  85.00  77.00    0    0    1    1    1    4    0    0    0
             Detroit  75.60  86.40    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    4    0
         Kansas City  83.60  78.40    0    0    0    1    0    0    3    1    0
           Minnesota  88.40  73.60    2    0    1    3    1    1    1    0    0

                WEST    Won   Lost   WC   LC   1R  1st Wild  2nd  3rd  4th   5+
         Los Angeles  91.20  70.80    0    0    3    4    0    0    1    0    0
             Oakland  79.40  82.60    0    0    0    0    0    1    4    0    0
             Seattle  77.40  84.60    0    0    0    1    0    1    0    3    0
               Texas  80.80  81.20    0    0    0    0    0    3    0    2    0

                EAST    Won   Lost   WC   LC   1R  1st Wild  2nd  3rd  4th   5+
             Atlanta  86.80  75.20    0    1    0    1    1    1    3    0    0
             Florida  71.80  90.20    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    2
            New York  89.80  72.20    0    1    2    2    1    2    0    1    0
        Philadelphia  92.20  70.00    0    0    1    2    0    2    1    0    0
          Washington  73.60  88.40    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    2    3

             CENTRAL    Won   Lost   WC   LC   1R  1st Wild  2nd  3rd  4th   5+
             Chicago  77.80  84.20    0    0    0    0    0    1    3    0    1
          Cincinnati  76.20  86.00    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    2
             Houston  74.60  87.40    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    2
           Milwaukee  86.60  75.60    0    0    0    4    0    0    0    1    0
          Pittsburgh  69.60  92.40    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    4
           St. Louis  78.00  84.00    0    1    0    1    0    2    0    1    1

                WEST    Won   Lost   WC   LC   1R  1st Wild  2nd  3rd  4th   5+
             Arizona  85.20  76.80    0    0    0    0    1    3    1    1    0
            Colorado  82.60  79.40    0    1    0    2    0    0    0    2    1
         Los Angeles  91.40  70.80    1    0    1    3    1    1    1    0    0
           San Diego  69.40  92.60    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    2    3
       San Francisco  83.60  78.40    0    0    1    0    1    1    3    0    1

                 TEAM FINANCES Attendance    Revenue     Profit
          Arizona Diamondbacks      34212  117234161    8255339
                Atlanta Braves      36440  133878376   22343167
             Baltimore Orioles      32314  126821470   40087437
                Boston Red Sox      37399  183870839   28198464
                  Chicago Cubs      37402  148428172   -4473017
             Chicago White Sox      28537  123808852   29586408
               Cincinnati Reds      20727   97632065    7447912
             Cleveland Indians      28876  108354266   30550666
              Colorado Rockies      25443  106640509    4440513
                Detroit Tigers      33937  131226841   -9288936
               Florida Marlins      15253   75880739    9387003
                Houston Astros      36432  132455826   14603913
            Kansas City Royals      21202   96109679   -4183335
            Los Angeles Angels      43413  152739987   13158878
           Los Angeles Dodgers      49381  168237079   38072104
             Milwaukee Brewers      18159   91930826  -10167975
               Minnesota Twins      24799  119635809   32144565
                 New York Mets      44975  184974780     291217
              New York Yankees      52325  240189565   -7545357
             Oakland Athletics      22792  123669209   37687301
         Philadelphia Phillies      41183  159413011   -7301756
            Pittsburgh Pirates      23421   95942859   24336806
              San Diego Padres      26027  106763931   44367338
          San Francisco Giants      31325  139289276   28952406
              Seattle Mariners      33534  126227418    4651126
           St. Louis Cardinals      38413  150827436   28217773
                Tampa Bay Rays      15923   89045716    1624397
                 Texas Rangers      36921  125093919   20755366
             Toronto Blue Jays      31320  119651782    -788343
          Washington Nationals      30718  124985221   48130161

2009 AL MVP
              Chris Davis    1
            Mark Teixeira    1
           Justin Morneau    1
            Nick Markakis    1
            Josh Hamilton    1

2009 NL MVP
             David Wright    2
               Ryan Braun    2
            Albert Pujols    1

2009 AL CY YOUNG
            C.C. Sabathia    2
              Scott Baker    1
              John Lackey    1
             Josh Beckett    1

2009 NL CY YOUNG
              Cole Hamels    1
            Hiroki Kuroda    1
            Kyle Kendrick    1
             Tim Lincecum    1
              Joe Blanton    1

2009 AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
            Brandon Allen    2
            Luis Montanez    1
          Matthew Wieters    1
               J.R. House    1

2009 NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
              Daniel Dorn    2
          Travis Ishikawa    1
          Micah Hoffpauir    1
         Kenshin Kawakami    1

2009 AL .400 HITTERS

2009 NL .400 HITTERS

2009 AL NO HITTERS
         Joba Chamberlain    1
           Fausto Carmona    1
              R.A. Dickey    1

2009 NL NO HITTERS

2009 AL PERFECT GAMES

2009 NL PERFECT GAMES
          Adam Wainwright    1
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Longball714
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2009 3:05 pm 
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haha, Phillies still win the NL East! Woohoo! :D

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cownip
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2009 3:06 pm 
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Haha, I don't think that's too accurate. I've played Mogul before, and I was amazed first of all how in-depth there statistics were, and secondly how inaccurate they were. Yes they do seem to have a stat for every little detail, but they're mostly far off. Pitchers threw pitches they didn't have, hitterrs who were fast were all of a sudden Ricky Henderson, and some sluggers became the next Babe Ruth. Guerro hit over 400 once and Pujols over 65 homers. I don't take too much from Baseball mogul. I prefer strat-o-matic, similar, but much more accurate.

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SPE777
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2009 4:22 pm 
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A couple of problems I have with these projections:

The White Sox with 64 wins (last place in AL Central) and KC with 83 wins (3rd in Central)???

But maybe most surprising...

How do the Cubs come up in 3rd place with a losing record in the NL Central?? They're stacked with talent!
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catcher51
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2009 6:15 pm 
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Longball714 wrote:
haha, Phillies still win the NL East! Woohoo! :D

i really don't care as long as that happens. We can beat anybody. (including the mets! :P

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Novagraf
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 6:13 pm 
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i like how danny dorn was picked twice as the rookie of the year in NL when he's not even on the Reds' 40 man roster so far.
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lanceberkman
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 6:43 pm 
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Favorite Japanese title: (Wii) Jikkyou Powerful Major League 2009
Matt Wieters is in the minors as well.
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DrMario
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 6:52 pm 
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Matt Wieters will be playing for O's soon, very soon.

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lanceberkman
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 7:04 pm 
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He should be playing for them already.
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chee2424
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 7:00 pm 
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My money is on the field in the NL east.

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lanceberkman
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 7:06 pm 
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What do you mean?
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Me_and_Lucy
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 8:28 pm 
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My god, Wang is aweful. 1 inn, 5 ER. Left with bases loaded nobody out.

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Me_and_Lucy
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 8:42 pm 
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*Faints* 9-0 after 2 innings. Its like me when I'm playing Exhibition. Good for my fantasy though :)
SORRY FOR OFF-TOPIC!!!

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gocubs09
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 5:47 pm 
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How will Micah Hoffpauir get ROTY if he's on the BENCH? Both Geo and Longoria were starters last year.

And the BREWERS???

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chee2424
 Post subject: Re: 2009 Projected Results (Simulated 5 Times)
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 10:18 pm 
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lanceberkman wrote:
What do you mean?



The phillies are not going to repeat.

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