Power Pros Forum

SP Robbie Ray 93 /124/135 CHG (2)/KNCB (1)/V-Slider(1) Release 2, Gd Pick off, spin 2, W/RISP 2

With maturity and mechanical refinements he has gradually regained his velocity, back into the low-90s and occasionally as high as 95-96. His changeup has always been solid, but the key over the last year has been an improved breaking ball. It's not terrific but it is better than it was two years ago when he was getting hammered in the Carolina League. He's shown excellent command of all three pitches this spring, another reason for his step forward.

Very good FB for LHP; can induce weak contact down in the zone; prone to HR when command is off and FB/CH are up in the zone/ CB has above-average potential; CH could reach average with work but likely to come up short of that level; command projection thanks to athletic body, but delivery needs consistency to reach that level; excellent competitor; has raw ingredients to start but could fall back to bullpen long term.

Ray throws his fastball in the low-90s and can reach back for a tick more velocity when he needs it. His slider can look slurvy at times, but the best ones have good depth. He has a good feel for his changeup, which is a more consistent offering. His command has improved, but he would benefit from further refinement. Ray is a good athlete and has proven to be durable. He relies more on pitchability than overpowering stuff to get outs, but he has what it takes to succeed as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

It’s hard not to like Ray the second he steps on the mound, thanks to a lean, athletic build that exhibits some strength. He backs up the physical presence with an easy delivery that he has begun to repeat with more consistency. Ray’s fastball is his calling card, sitting in the 92-93 mph range so far this season and reaching as high as 97 mph according to multiple scouts in the stands in Toledo this year. His fastball jumps out of his hand and gets on hitters very quickly, inducing late swings and leaving hitters unable to square his primary offering.

The progress Ray has made with his changeup is notable. He trusts the pitch much more now than he did even last year, and as a result he throws the pitch with better arm speed and more overall conviction. The changeup sits in the low-80s, giving it plenty of velocity separation from his fastball, which keeps hitters off balance and makes it an average complementary pitch. Ray could stand to command the change with more regularity, but that command should come with additional polish. Ray’s slurvy breaking ball lags behind his other two pitches, working in a decidedly below-average bracket much of the time. He will flash the occasional average breaker with tighter spin and more consistent short break, and those flashes have increased in frequency this year, allowing him to change the look he’s giving hitters. Even though he is a quality athlete and has walked only five batters in over 28 innings so far this season, Ray must improve the command of his fastball within the strike zone. All too often he leaves his fastball in hittable parts of the zone, and major-league hitters will feast on those mistakes. With minor refinements to his command and control, Ray could be ready to take off at the MLB level. All told, Ray has a no. 3 ceiling and will almost certainly settle into a big league rotation as a quality no. 4 starter. The ultimate development of his breaking ball and command will determine whether he works at the higher end of that range.